Boston, MA -- (SBWire) -- 11/06/2013 --The Argentina Retail Report examines the long-term potential of the local consumer market, but flags shortterm concern about the impact on Argentina's economic outlook of the prospect of a sizeable currency devaluation.
The report examines how best to maximise returns in the Argentine retail market while minimising investment risk, and also explores the impact of deteriorating relations between Argentina and its key trade partners on the Argentine consumer, and on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the short term.
The latest report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by the leading players in the Argentine retail sector, as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities offered by the local market.
Argentine per capita consumer spending is forecast to increase by 32% to 2017, compared with a regional growth average of 32%. Argentina comes seventh (out of seven) in BMI's Latin American Retail Risk/ Reward ratings.
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Among all retail categories, consumer electronics will be one of the outperformers through to 2017 in growth terms, with sales forecast to increase by 24% between 2013 and 2017 - from US$5.65bn to US $7.0bn. PC penetration is fairly low at about 25%, and this is expected to climb to more than 30% by 2017, creating opportunities for vendors.
In the competitive arena, BMI sees upside potential in the Conectar Igualdad programme to provide 3mn PCs to public schools nationwide, which should provide opportunities for manufacturers and retailers alike. Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts and views:
- BMI continues to expect that Argentine real GDP growth will bottom in 2013, forecasting 1.8% growth this year after 1.9% growth last year, as a currency devaluation, which we expect to occur in H213, sends inflation higher, and net exports drag on growth. We expect real GDP growth to accelerate to 2.9% next year on the back of a rebound in private consumption and less of a drag from net exports.
- While shopping centre and durable goods sales posted strong year-on-year growth in the first few months of 2013, we expect a number of factors to converge and to slow real private consumption growth to just 0.5% this year, down from 4.4% in 2012. We expect a slight recovery next year, owing to easing inflation and base effects, and we forecast 2.0% real private consumption growth for 2014.
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Argentina Retail Report Q4 2013 - New Market Study Published
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