Lewes, DE -- (SBWire) -- 07/31/2015 --Core Views
- Brazil is in the midst of an economic policy shift. A new economic team will begin reversing the fiscal deterioration seen in the last few years and the central bank is more strongly committed to reining in inflation. That said, these shifts will be slow to translate into stronger real GDP growth given a number of domestic and external headwinds.
- We see little upside for Brazilian real GDP growth in the next few years. Significant headwinds to fixed investment and private consumption will see real GDP contract by 1.7% in 2015 before returning to growth of just 0.9% in 2016.
- A greater commitment to tackling inflation will see the central bank hike the benchmark Selic target rate by another 75 basis points to 14.50% by end-2015. This will bolster the bank's inflation fighting credentials but will not succeed in bringing headline inflation back with its 4.5% ± 2.0% tolerance band this year.
- The widespread public protests that took place in June 2013 marked a turning point for the Brazilian electorate. Public unrest will flare up intermittently until significant progress on promised reforms, including higher-quality public services and greater government transparency, begins to take shape. In line with this view, an ongoing corruption scandal at national oil company Petrobras will continue to drive public protests in the coming months.
Major Forecast Changes
- We have downgraded our 2015 real GDP growth forecast further, to -1.7%, from -0.5% previously. Significant labour market deterioration helps to underpin this forecast change, as private consumption will be more subdued than we previously anticipated.
- We have raised our end-2015 interest rate forecast to 14.50%, from 13.50% previously, as hawkish rhetoric from the central bank combined with above-target inflation suggests that further rate hikes are on the cards this year.
The Brazil Country Risk Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Brazil. It is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.
An influential new analysis of Brazil's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2019, just published by award-winning forecasters, Publisher Research.
Key Uses
- Forecast the pace and stability of Brazil's economic and industry growth through end-2019.
- Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
- Assess the critical shortcomings of the operating environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
- Contextualise Brazil's country risks against regional peers using Publisher's country comparative Risk Index system.
- Evaluate external threats to doing business in Brazil, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.
- The Brazil Country Risk Report by Publisher Research includes four major sections: Economic Outlook, Political Outlook, Operational Risk and Key Sector Outlook.
Economic Outlook:
How will the Brazil' economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2015-2019?
Publisher provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for Brazil through end-2019 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management.
Economic Outlook Contents
The Brazil Country Risk Report features Publisher's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2015 through to end-2019, set against government views and Publisher's evaluation of global and regional prospects.
Key Areas Covered:
Data:
- Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita), population, inflation, current account balance and the exchange rate.
- Publisher's comprehensive Risk Index system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk, and rates the business environment, within a global and regional context.
Written Analysis:
- Economic Activity - real GDP growth, employment, inflation, consumption (retail sales and confidence).
- Balance of Payments - trade and investment, current and capital account.
- Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).
- Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls, foreign investment flows, exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.
- Fiscal Policy - macroeconomic strategy and policies, government finance and tax reforms.
- Foreign Direct Investment - approvals, inflows and climate.
- External Debt - debt profile (short and long-term plus public and private sector obligations).
- Global Assumptions - forecasts for each year to end-2019 covering: major commodities, growth in key regions, inflation, and interest and exchange rates, in the United States, Japan, China and the eurozone.
Key Benefits
- Rely upon Publisher's 100% independent forecast scenarios for Brazil and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
- Exploit the benefits of Publisher's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic database on Brazil, sourced and fully maintained by Publisher from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
- Gain key insights into the current and future direction of government economic policy, which could significantly affect your company's business prospects, from Publisher's team of analysts and economists.
Political Outlook:
What are the political risks to doing business in Brazil over the next 5-years?
Publisher's Brazil country Risk Index evaluates the short- and medium-term threats to political stability.
Political Outlook Contents
- SWOT Analysis for the Brazil Market - Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing Brazil.
- Political Stability and Risk Assessment - Publisher's Risk Index assesses explicit short- and long-term risks to political stability; latest positioning and trends for Brazil's risk are compared with regional and global averages.
- Current Administration and Policy-making Publisher assesses the threats to the continuity of economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment.
- Long-Term Political Outlook Publisher examines the structural risks to the stability of Brazil's political system and the dominant public policy issues likely to affect decision-makers, and outlines scenarios for how the state could evolve in the medium to long term.
Key Benefits
- Benchmark Brazil's risk profile against its neighbours, the global and regional average, allowing easy comparison of risks between key business markets.
- Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risks to the business environment, and to your company's current operations and future plans.
- Gain valuable insights into government and policy-making, through Publisher's specialist team of analysts and economists, and their network of private and public sector sources.
Operational Risk
What are the current operational risks and difficulties associated with doing business in Brazil?
The Operational Risk section gives an evaluation of current risks and difficulties associated with operating in the market. It also provides a brief overview of the regional Operational Risk Index which benchmarks Brazil against its neighbours.
Operational Risk Contents
The chapter provides a summary of the main threats in the country, within:
- Labour Market Risk (Education; Availability of Labour; and Labour Costs)
- Logistics Risk (Market Size and Utilities; Quality and Extent of the Transport Governance)
- Trade and Investment Risk (Economic Openness; Government Intervention; and Legal Risks)
- Crime and Security Risk (Crime; Terrorism; and Interstate Conflict risks).
The report also drills down in greater depth to address key issues in one of the following segments most critical to the market:
- Transport network, economic openness, cost and availability of labour, crime risks, bureaucratic environment, market size and utilities, and interstate conflict.
- Assess your company's exposure to country specific operational and business risks, using Publisher's insight on the current dangers of operating in the market.
- Evaluate Brazil's risk profile against its regional peers, helping you understand the market's strengths and weaknesses in relation to other countries.
Key Sector Outlook*
Which industry sectors in Brazil will grow fastest, and where are the major investment opportunities in the market?
Publisher identifies investment opportunities in Brazil's high growth industries including automotives, defence & security, food & drink, freight transport, infrastructure, oil & gas, pharmaceuticals & healthcare and telecommunications & IT.
Key Areas Covered:
- Market Overview - Size and value of each industry, including recent sector developments and major industry key performance indicators (KPIs) that have impacted company performance.
- 5-year Industry Forecasts - Forecasts for each year over 2015-2019, using Publisher's proprietary industry modelling technique, which incorporates key domestic and international indicators - including economic growth, interest rates, exchange rate outlook, commodity prices and demographic trends - to provide fully integrated forecasts across and within each industry.
- Demand- and Supply-Side Data/Forecasts - Publisher's industry data covers both the output of each industry and the domestic demand, offering clear analysis of anticipated import/export trends, as well as capacity growth within each industry.
Key Benefits
- Target strategic opportunities in high growth industries, which are benefiting from global mega trends, and thus offer strong investment and growth opportunities.
- Compare the growth path of different industries to identify which are best placed to benefit from domestic and international economic prospects, and which have historically suffered from volatile growth trends - a key indicator of future risks.
For further information on this report, please visit-
http://www.marketresearchreports.com/business-monitor-international/brazil-country-risk-report-q4-2015
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Related Report:
1st- Malaysia Country Risk Report Q4 2015 - visit at: http://www.marketresearchreports.com/business-monitor-international/malaysia-country-risk-report-q4-2015
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