Lewes, DE -- (SBWire) -- 04/12/2016 --We expect real GDP growth to continue to slow in 2016, and forecast it to fall to 6.3%, versus 6.9% in 2015. As the economy continues to work through its significant overcapacity issues, job losses in sectors ranging from coal mining to steel production could be significant. Meanwhile, trade accounts will continue to underperform versus previous years, with both exports and imports set to contract for a second straight year.
Xi Jinping has largely consolidated his leadership position, and we believe that he is firmly in control of the Communist Party. This means that policymaking will remain highly centralised and generally cohesive over the medium term. While there remain divides on how to manage the economy, we believe that an increased emphasis will be placed on monetary stimulus as growth continues to slow. That said, targeted fiscal measures are also likely as the pace of the slowdown has likely surprised Beijing to the downside. The level of acceptance from the government regarding the re-allocation of labour from industries with significant overcapacity issues will be particularly crucial.
Major Forecast Changes
- The People's Bank of China (PBoC) will eventually be forced to relent in its support for the embattled Chinese yuan, and we retain a bearish outlook on the currency.
- Amid increasing downside pressures, we are downgrading our 2016 CNY forecast to CNY7.1000/ USD, versus CNY6.8000/USD previously.
Spanning over 45 pages "China Country Risk Report Q2 2016" report covers Executive Summary, Economic Outlook, 10-Year Forecast, Political Outlook, Operational Risk.
For more information Visit at: http://www.marketresearchreports.com/business-monitor-international/china-country-risk-report-q2-2016
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