Boston, MA -- (SBWire) -- 08/06/2012 --BMI View: Our view that growth in Chinese power consumption and generation would decelerate in 2012 has been playing out, corroborated by a growing number of indicators. New data released by China's National Energy Administration show that power consumption increased 3.7% in April 2012, the slowest rate in 16 months; meanwhile, trade and GDP figures support BMI's long-held view that the Chinese economy may suffer a hard landing. That said, we anticipate that the power infrastructure project pipeline will remain substantial, with the construction of nuclear power plants close to resuming and ultra-high voltage power transmission lines and smart grids receiving increasing attention.
View Full Report Details and Table of Contents
The intensification of the downtrend in China's GDP growth in 2012, as well as a sharp contraction in import and export growth in April 2012, offer strong support to BMI's long-held view that China will suffer a hard landing. These elements are further corroborated by the significant slowdown in power generation and consumption, a pertinent barometer of economic activity. Taking these developments into consideration, and with BMI's Country Risk analysts expecting continued lacklustre growth, we maintain our forecasts for growth in power consumption of 7.52% in 2012, down from an estimated 11.07% in 2011.
Aside from this expected deceleration in 2012, long-term growth in power generation and consumption is also expected to moderate, as energy intensity declines. That said, China's overall electricity generation and consumption levels will remain considerable and in a league of their own. As such, significant investment in new capacity will still be of paramount importance to the country's power sector - an outlook that finds further support in the forecasts made by BMI's Infrastructure analysts.
In terms of the fuel mix, conventional thermal sources are expected to continue to dominate electricity generation over the coming years, as many projects that are planned or under construction will use coal or gas. Yet, policy developments in H112 confirmed our previous analysis, and prompted us to assume an even more bullish posture with regard to renewables, especially wind and solar.
Taking these key themes into consideration, major trends and changes in China's power sector include:
- According to figures released by China's National Energy Administration, the country's power consumption increased 3.7% in April to 389 terawatt hours (TWh), a value 3.3 percentage points lower than that of the previous month and the slowest growth rate reported in 16 months.
- China's state council announced it would most likely hold a meeting before the end of June to approve nuclear safety and development plans. The government will be in a position to restart approving new nuclear plants after the plans are passed.
About Fast Market Research
Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. Representing the world's top research publishers and analysts, we provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. Our unbiased, expert staff will help you find the right research to fit your requirements and your budget. For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156.
Browse all Energy research reports at Fast Market Research
You may also be interested in these related reports:
- Global Power Survey 2012-2013: Market Trends, Marketing Spend and Sales Strategies in the Global Power Industry
- Global Power Survey 2012-2013: Market Trends, Buyer Spend and Procurement Strategies in the Global Power Industry
- Industry Dynamics, Growth, Threats & Opportunities in the Power Industry - 2012-2013 : Survey Intelligence
- Turkey Power Report Q3 2012
- Poland Power Report Q3 2012
- Entergy Corporation (ETR) - Nuclear Energy - Deals and Alliances Profile
- Buyer Spend Activity and Procurement Behaviors and Strategies in the Power Industry - 2012-2013 : Survey Intelligence
- Entergy Corporation (ETR) - Power - Deals and Alliances Profile
- Kenya Power Report Q3 2012
- Cambodia Power Report Q3 2012
"China Power Report Q3 2012" Now Available at Fast Market Research
New Energy market report from Business Monitor International: "China Power Report Q3 2012"