Boston, MA -- (SBWire) -- 07/09/2013 --Romania's economy as a whole is estimated to have grown by 0.5% in real terms during 2012, and we forecast that growth in 2013 will be 1.7%, according to our Country Risk team's latest macroeconomic outlook. However, it is thought that the construction sector outperformed the economic growth rate. Underpinning our relative optimism for the sector is the strong performance of the roads and power sectors, along with an improving non-residential construction outlook. For 2013, we expect real growth of 1.9% for the construction industry, which is a return to growth after a 0.9% contraction in 2012. Over the period 2014-2017, we expect that Romania's construction market will expand at annual rate of 3.2%, while the period 2018-2022 will see continued annual growth of around 3.1% in real terms, making for a reasonably auspicious long-term outlook in comparison to the previous years. Risks to our construction sector forecasts are to the downside, with Romania's exposure to the downturn in the eurozone market and structural barriers despite EU membership weighing heavy on growth. Until the eurozone crisis abates, it is unlikely that the residential construction market will improve in light of concerns over job security and wages.
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Key developments over the last quarter:
- Strong Wind Sector - Romania's renewables sector has been performing well over the last few years in light of a better regulatory environment than its regional competitors. As a result, Romania's total nonhydro renewables capacity went from zero in 2007 to nearly 2,000MW in 2012 (BMI estimate). Romania hopes to supply 38% of its electricity consumption from renewable energy sources by 2020. Considering this outlook along with poor performances in the water and oil and gas infrastructure sub-sectors, we forecast that the energy and utilities infrastructure industry will grow in real terms by 2.7% in 2013 yearon- year (y-o-y). The pipeline for renewables projects remains strong, with a large international presence in the wind market to offset the challenging conditions firms' domestic renewables markets. In February 2013 General Electric (GE) won a contract to provide US$30mn in turbines for the Cerna Wind Park, increasing its capacity by 17.5MW. German company E.ON plan to build at least 100MW of wind power in Romania by 2014. Italian renewable energy company Enel Green Power now has a portfolio of Romanian wind farms with an overall production capacity of 292MW. The company is also developing a further 206MW of new facilities within the country. In October 2012, GDF Suez Energy Romania announced that it would finish building a EUR75mn wind farm by early December 2012.
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Romania Infrastructure Report Q3 2013 - New Report Available
Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Romania Infrastructure Report Q3 2013", is now available at Fast Market Research