Boston, MA -- (SBWire) -- 12/31/2013 --We have revised down our 2014 electricity generation forecast for Thailand to account for the decline in gas-fired generation, which is brought on by shutdowns and maintenance of several gas fields. We have also made material revisions to our long-term forecasts to reflect the country's new power development plan, such as a downward revision to our long-term gas-fired generation forecasts and an upward revision to our coal-fired generation forecasts. Overall, the country is likely to increase its reliance on electricity imports to satisfy electricity consumption, which is a trend we had previously predicted.
We have revised down our 2014 electricity generation growth forecast for Thailand from 4.6% to 2.7%. This moderation was prompted by news of upcoming shutdowns and maintenance of several gas fields which will negatively affect gas-fired generation.
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We have materially revised our long-term forecasts for the Thai electricity sector this quarter to reflect the country's new power development plan (PDP). On October 21 2013, the Thai Ministry of Energy announced that it would be amending the PDP before the end of 2013. While the exact details of the revisions have not yet been announced, several key amendments that the ministry has outlined include prioritising coal as the preferred fuel for power generation and stepping up imports of hydropower from neighbouring countries.
Key trends and regulatory changes in the industry:
- The Thai government updated its green energy agenda in March 2012 with the ambitious 'Alternative Energy Development Plan' (2012-2021). The plan states that 25% of total energy consumption would derive from alternative energy sources, and set targets of 2GW of solar capacity, 1.2GW of wind capacity and 3.63GW of biomass, all by 2021.
- On July 16, the Thai government introduced a FiT programme for up to 1,000MW of rooftop and village-based solar projects. These projects would qualify for 25-year power purchase agreements with tariffs as high as THB9.75/kWh.
- Construction on the controversial Xayaburi dam has restarted, despite opposition from Vietnam and Cambodia. The Thai government also affirmed a power purchase agreement for 95% of the dam's electricity output in January 2012, going against the regional decision-making process.
- The Thai government is set to open bids for six gas-based independent power projects (IPPs) with a capacity of 5,400MW. This was announced after Thailand's National Energy Policy Council approved the third revision of the country's 2010-2030 power development plant. All IPPs use natural gas.
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Thailand Power Report Q1 2014: New Research Report Available at Fast Market Research
Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Thailand Power Report Q1 2014", is now available at Fast Market Research