Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 06/27/2013 -- BMI View: Despite significant downgrades in wheat production, it appears that the 2012/13 Argentine grain crop will come in above average, largely due to improvements in soybean and corn production. We anticipate wheat showing the most production growth over the long term at 44%, although this will largely be a function of base effects. We anticipate an improvement in the country's livestock sector in 2012/13 as well, as lower grain prices and larger cattle herds should spur beef production. Over the long term, we anticipate the poultry sector showing the largest growth, due to domestic and international demand. As ever, the key risk for the sector will be government involvement. With a potential peso devaluation coming in Argentina, and an election in October, the sector could be in for a turbulent year despite a general improvement in the sector's prospects.

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Key Trends

- Corn production growth to 2016/17: 23% to 33.2mn tonnes. We expect the area harvested to increase as improved prices and export opportunities arising from increasing livestock and biofuel production encourage farmers to plant corn. However, some of this growth will also be due to base effects.
- Soybean production growth to 2016/17: 6% to 54.1mn tonnes. This is mainly due to recent government approval for new types of genetically modified seeds, which are likely to boost yields over the medium term. The more subdued growth from previous reports is due to base effects.
- Beef production growth to 2016/17: 18% to 3.3mn tonnes. Despite the growth, beef production will fail to exceed levels from the mid 2000s.
- 2013 real GDP growth: 1.0% year-on-year (y-o-y) (down from 2.8% in 2012; predicted to average 3.4% from 2012 until 2017).
- Consumer price index (average): 25% y-o-y in 2013 (up from 23.5% in 2012).

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