Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 01/26/2013 -- We believe the impact of a Chinese hard landing will lead to slower Chilean real GDP growth. That said, private consumption has continued to perform well; we expected it to grow 5.3% in 2012. Unemployment has so far stayed lower than we expected, while real wages also are continuing to grow. Supporting the increase in private consumer spending has been steady growth in bank loans, a trend we expect to be sustained through 2013. Indeed, a cut to the monetary policy rate will allow credit to grow further and consumption to increase 5.5% in real terms in 2013.

Headline Industry Data (local currency)

? 2013 per capita food consumption value = +5.7%; forecast compound annual growth rate (CAGR) to 2017 = +5.7%. ? 2013 alcoholic drinks value sales = +6.4%; forecast CAGR to 2017 = +6.3%. ? 2013 soft drinks value sales = +8.0% ; forecast CAGR to 2017 = +8.1%. ? 2013 mass grocery retail value sales = +5.7%; forecast CAGR to 2017 = +5.7%.

Key Company Trends

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Barry Callebaut Expands In Chile: In October 2012, Swiss business-to-business chocolate manufacturer Barry Callebaut signed a deal with Chile-based confectionery producer Arcos-Dos en Uno for the supply of compound and chocolate products. The move will see Barry Callebaut invest EUR13mn to build a new facility in the city of Santiago with capacity to produce 20,000 tonnes of chocolate products per year. The firm described the deal as its first long-term outsourcing agreement in South America, and the move fits with our favourable view of the regional confectionery sector as well as Barry Callebaut's stated desire to increase its exposure to emerging markets.

Cencosud Turns Attention To Colombia As Carrefour Exits: In October 2012, Chile-based retailer Cencosud announced it is to acquire the Colombian assets of French retailer Carrefour in a deal worth US$2.5bn. The move comes after the firm raised additional capital through a share sale in Chile and New York (via American depository receipts), which we said at the time was likely to be used to pay off debts and fund further expansion. We had speculated that the retailer was likely to be focused in Brazil, where it has been investing heavily since entering the market in 2007. However, the recent cooling of the Brazilian economy may have pushed the firm to look elsewhere, with Colombia's consumer sector currently outperforming its regional counterpart.

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