Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 06/07/2013 -- After a difficult 2012, we expect Serbia to enjoy a modest recovery over the coming year, forecasting real GDP growth to accelerate from -1.9% in 2012 to 1.9% in 2013. This will be partly due to base effects after several bouts of extreme weather hit agricultural and industrial output, but also a result of increased exports and remittance inflows. Despite this improvement, Serbian households are set for another difficult year in 2013 owing to fiscal austerity and high unemployment.

Headline Industry Data (local currency)

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- 2013 per capita food consumption: +3.2%; five-year forecast to 2017: +16.3%.
- 2013 alcoholic drinks value sales: +3.0%; five-year forecast to 2017: +15.0%.
- 2013 soft drinks value sales: +11.5%; five-year forecast to 2017: +76.2%.
- 2013 mass grocery retail sales: +7.5%; five-year forecast to 2017: +37.4%.

Key Industry Trends

Heineken And EBI De-merge Joint Ventures: In early 2013 Dutch brewer Heineken and Efes Breweries International (EBI), a subsidiary of Turkey's Anadolu Efes, announced plans to de-merge their joint ventures in Kazakhstan and Serbia. The two companies will complete the deal by exchanging minority cross-shareholdings, which will result in a consideration of US$161mn to be paid by EBI to Heineken.

Heineken will divest its 28% interest in Efes Kazakhstan to EBI while acquiring EBI's 28% stake in Central Europe Beverages, which is the holding company for the Serbian operations, giving Heineken full ownership.

Casino To Enter Serbian Market: It was reported in early 2013 that French-based retailer Casino is to enter the Serbian market, opening seven supermarkets over the course of the year. Casino is partnering with local operator Sodibal, who has also become the official distributor for Casino products and outlets in the Balkans region. The financial details of the alliance have not been disclosed.

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