Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 07/09/2013 -- Our outlook for the Italian agribusiness sector has turned more bearish, as dry conditions in Europe, high operating costs and bleak economic prospects have taken a toll on the grains, dairy and livestock sectors. Our long-held view has favoured the grains segment over rice, and we expect conditions to be particularly favourable for wheat and corn production over the forecast period to 2017. We also expect poultry and cheese to outperform, mainly bolstered by the economic recovery, changes in consumption habits and opportunities for expansion into export markets.

Key Forecasts

- Wheat production growth to 2016/17: 22.1% to 7.5mn tonnes. Production is expected to rise as prices stay elevated, driven by growing demand for food and biofuels. Production of cellulosic ethanol, of which Italy is soon set to become a world leader, also will very likely help to boost wheat production.
- Cheese consumption growth to 2017: 20.6% to 1.8mn tonnes. Per capita cheese consumption, at 28.1kg, is on a par with France and Germany and higher than northern European countries such as Sweden and the UK.
- Poultry production growth to 2016/17: 10.4% to 1.4mn tonnes. Poultry is a relatively cheap meat; as such, we expect continued strong demand amid the tough economic climate.
- 2013 real GDP growth: -1.3% year-on-year (y-o-y), compared with the -2.4% estimated for 2012.
- 2013 consumer price index: 1.5% average, slightly down from 1.7% estimated for 2012.
- BMI universe agribusiness market value: 1.2% y-o-y decline to US$16.9bn in 2012/13, forecast to grow on average 0.7% annually between 2013/14 and 2016/17.

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