Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 10/03/2013 -- The Bulgarian Retail Report examines the long-term potential of the local consumer market, but flags up short-term concerns about the impact on Bulgaria's economic outlook of ongoing instability in the political environment.

The report looks at how best to maximise returns in the Bulgarian retail market while minimising investment risk. We also explore the impact of trade issues with weaker periphery states on the Bulgarian consumer and on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the short term. BMI also analyses growth and risk management strategies being employed by the leading players in the Bulgarian retail sector as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities offered by the local market.

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Bulgarian per capita consumer spending is forecast to increase by a modest 11% to 2017, compared with a regional growth average of 39%. The country is eighth out of 10 in BMI's Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) Retail Risk/Reward Ratings, largely due to its modest GDP per capita. However, 10th placed Croatia's small population, lack of modern retail space and lengthy bureaucratic procedures mean Bulgaria is unlikely to move down the table over the forecast period.

Among all retail categories, consumer electronics will be the outperformer through to 2017 in growth terms, due to relatively low household penetration rates for digital products groups such as notebook computers and LCD TV sets. BMI forecasts a 35% increase in sales, from US$1.35bn in 2013 to US$1.82bn by 2017.

In the competitive arena, BMI sees upside potential in the government's ongoing commitment to making ICT development a key priority for the country. Key policy areas include programmes to computerise schools and connect them to the internet, raising Bulgaria into the top 40 countries in terms of e-government and investing in skills training to boost the domestic IT sector.

Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts and views:

- Our downgrades to our real GDP forecasts last quarter are looking increasingly likely to be realised as an economic slowdown continues to take hold in Bulgaria. While our forecast lies slightly below official expectations, we remain comfortable with our forecast for real GDP growth of just 0.5% in 2013, particularly with Q113 readings showing that the economy grew by just 0.4%.We expect households to remain the key driver behind headline real GDP growth in 2013, with leading and lagging indicators both implying an improvement from the weakness seen in the last quarter of 2012.

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