Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 03/19/2013 -- BMI View: Oman has reason for optimism about its oil and gas sector's prospects in 2013. Its experiment in full-scale enhanced oil recovery (EOR) projects has delivered clear results, with crude production reviving to levels not seen in 10 years. Ambitious plans to expand its downstream sector, with a new grassroots refinery in Duqm, attest to the positive sentiment in the Sultanate's hydrocarbons sector. The icing on the cake would be a final investment decision on BP's proposed $20bn tight gas development. The willingness of the authorities to tweak the pricing structure could make the scheme a bankable one for the UK supermajor - heralding a substantial long-term increase in gas production.

We highlight the following trends and developments in Oman's oil & gas sector:

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- BMI sees Oman's proven oil reserves rising from 5.5bn barrels (bbl) in 2011 to 5.9bn bbl by 2013/14, but falling to less than 5.3bn bbl over the long-term forecast period to 2021. The success of enhanced oil recovery (EOR) is critical both in terms of raising estimates of recoverable oil, and in terms of oil production levels.
- Oman's government is anticipating average oil production of 915,000 barrels per day (b/d) in 2012, rising to 1mn b/d in 2013. Total production of crude oil and condensates in November 2012 rose by less than one percentage point to 28mn bbl, equivalent to 933,509b/d, over October 2012. According to the Ministry of Oil and Gas' monthly report, total quantities of crude oil exported abroad in November 2012 stood 785,781b/d, a decline by 6.27% compared to October 2012.
- Petroleum Development Oman (PDO) is preparing to spend significant amounts to boost exploration and production (E&P) activities in the next five years. According to reports, the company will invest US $26bn, as part of a longer-term plan to spend US$60-70bn in the oil & gas sector over the next 10 years.
- The success of Oman's EOR programme is witnessed in the revival in oil production levels that will approach 1mn b/d in 2013. However, natural gas output may struggle to achieve similar increases; much will rest on the success of negotiations between BP and the Omani authorities over its tight gas development planned at Block 61.

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