Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Indonesia Tourism Report Q4 2012", is now available at Fast Market Research

Boston, MA -- (SBWire) -- 12/05/2012 --The Indonesia Tourism Report examines the strong long-term potential being offered by the local tourism industry, bolstered by rising demand for regional travel from China, but cautions that a resurgence in the number of cases of bird flu (H5N1 virus) in Indonesia over 2012 may start deter visitors over the coming months if the outbreak is not brought under control swiftly by the authorities.

We also analyse the growth and risk management strategies being employed by some of the leading players in the local tourism sector (ie: airlines and hotel chains) as they seek to maximise the tremendous growth opportunities being offered by the Indonesian market.

Arrivals over January-July 2012 increased by 5.4% year-on-year (y-o-y) to reach 4,577,510 people, according to information from the Ministry of Tourism and Creative Economy. This is a slight slowdown in the growth rate earlier in 2012 and may well reflect growing concerns about the increases in cases of bird flu across the archipelago, combined with a slowing of the global economy. Arrivals from Singapore, Indonesia's most important source market, were down by 1.71% y-o-y in January-July to 704,769 people.

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Arrivals for July itself fell by 5.9% y-o-y, the first drop in monthly arrivals numbers in over a year, according to a September 2012 report in Reuters. The country's statistics office, Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS), attributed this to London's hosting of the Olympics and Paralympics, which drew tourists away from other tourism destinations, as well as the start of Ramadan, which reduced arrivals of Muslim tourists.

Against this increasingly mixed backdrop, we maintain our forecast of 7.91mn tourist arrivals for 2012 as the country consolidates recent strong annual gains in arrival numbers. Beyond 2012, our forecast is for an average annual increase of 3.7% per annum over the coming years, leading to a total of over 9mn tourist arrivals by 2016. If the global economy picks up momentum going into 2013 and there is an end to the current resurgence in bird flu cases across Indonesia, there will be clear upside risks to our forecasts.

Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts and views:

- BMI believes there is an increasing downside risk to the total tourist arrivals forecasts from a potential resurgence of bird flu - with the country reporting nine new fatal cases of the H5N1 virus since the start of 2012 - if the authorities do not contain the disease quickly.
- Although there is a downside risk to the headline figures, BMI has upgraded its forecasts for tourist arrivals from China over the coming four years, with Chinese demand for regional travel continuing to grow strongly. Through to 2016, BMI forecasts Chinese arrivals to Indonesia to experience about 20% growth each year, taking total arrivals to nearly 1.3mn by the end of 2016.

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