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Boston, MA -- (SBWire) -- 03/19/2013 --Core Views

We expect that Sudan will emerge from its recession in 2013, but with serious constraints, including fiscal austerity, security challenges and very high inflation, growth will be subdued. South Sudan will see extremely high growth due to the statistical base effects of its oil shutdown in 2012.

There are still unresolved tensions between the two countries, and both sides accuse the other of violence by proxy rebel groups or in cross-border military incursions. The increasing tension in the domestic political scene in Sudan, as well as its stronger ties with Iran, further elevate the political risk.

Major Forecast Changes

We have begun to publish forecasts for a wide array of South Sudanese economic indicators, including real growth, which (again, due to exaggerated base effects) is expected to come in at 47.8% in 2013.

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We have incorporated the latest UN GDP data to our Sudan historical figures, which indicate that the impact from the secession of South Sudan reduced economic output by nearly a fifth. We are forecasting growth of 2.1% in 2013 in Sudan.

Key Risks To Outlook

A major risk to our outlook to both economies would be a substantial alteration in the timetable for resuming oil flows between the two countries. We expect that the cross-border transit of oil will resume in March, but, if this is delayed (or hastened), our forecasts would need to be altered.

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