Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "United States Freight Transport Report Q3 2013", is now available at Fast Market Research

Boston, MA -- (SBWire) -- 08/26/2013 --BMI maintains its cautiously positive outlook on the US freight sector. We have downgraded our US real GDP growth forecast for 2013 to 2.1% from 2.3%, due mainly to base effects from late 2012, and the decision to maintain the 'sequester' cuts to federal spending. Nevertheless, our core view on the US economy is that the recovery is becoming increasingly entrenched, and that by 2014 many of the headwinds to growth will be dissipating.

We believe that US export growth will continue to outpace import growth over the next several years, narrowing the goods trade deficit both as a percentage of GDP and in nominal terms. Increased US competitiveness and reviving global demand will support US exports, while continued expansion of domestic energy production will reduce the country's sizeable energy import bill, though this will be offset somewhat by a resurgent consumer over the next few quarters, which should provide a boost to freight transport volumes. We expect US household finances to continue to improve over the medium term, supporting an uptick in consumer activity, which should support freight transport volumes. A dwindling debt burden, improving consumer sentiment and higher net worth will support an increase in real private consumption, driving real GDP growth of 2.1% this year and 2.7% in 2014.

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Key Industry Data

- At the Port of Los Angeles (LA) we forecast a 2.7% growth in total tonnage in 2013, to reach 69mn tonnes.
- At the East Coast port of New York/New Jersey (NY/NJ), growth is forecast to be 2.1% in 2013, to reach 143mn tonnes.
- We predict growth of 3.8% in air freight volumes, to reach 13.8bn tonnes-km in 2013.
- We predict growth of 5.8% in rail freight tonnes, to reach 2.17bn tonnes in 2013, with annual average growth of 6.0% during our forecast period.

Key Industry Trends

Green Rail Terminal For SoCal Ports Approved View Related Content

BMI believes that a new rail freight terminal for the southern California (SoCal) ports of LA and Long Beach for which approval has just been granted will help the two facilities, the largest container-handling ports in the US, to remain competitive in the coming years.

Hawaii Air Freight Terminal To Grow On Island State's Recovery View Related Content

BMI believes that the outlook for the air freight company Aloha Air Cargo is bright given its new cargo terminal being constructed at Honolulu International Airport (HIA). Hawaii's remote location leaves the island state reliant on air freight to a greater degree than the contiguous 48, making demand fairly assured, and the dedicated freighter operator stands in a good position to take advantage of this.

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