Dallas, TX -- (SBWire) -- 12/02/2010 -- SandlerResearch announce it will carry Poland Shipping Report Q1 2011 Market Research Report in its Store.

Throughput at Poland’s largest port, Gdansk, is on course to post another year of growth in 2010 after gaining the distinction of being one of the few ports in Europe to beat the global downturn in trade in 2009 with tonnage at the facility increasing by 6% year-on-year (y-o-y) and container volumes growing by 29.6% y-o-y.

The latest year-to-date figures (January-September 2010) saw tonnage volumes at the port of Gdansk for the first nine months of 2010 increase by 47% on the same period in 2009 and box levels rise by 97.4%, indicating that the port is on course to record further full-year increases in throughput and reach BMI’s throughput targets for 2010.

This offers a sound base for BMI’s forecasts for port throughput at Gdansk for 2011 and for the rest of the mid term. The port’s throughput growth has to some extent been to the detriment of Poland’s other major port, the port of Gdynia, which has lost container traffic to Gdansk. However, in 2011 we predict that throughput at Gdynia will once again begin to increase, after three back-to-back years of decline.

Headline Industry Data
2011 port of Gdansk tonnage throughput forecast +6.3%, following projected growth of 28.66% in 2010.
2011 port of Gdansk container throughput forecast +14% following projected growth of 90% in 2010.
2011 total trade growth forecast at 5.65%.

Key Industry Trends
Gdansk On China’s Investment Radar – The Chinese port of Ningbo is seeking a Baltic Sea port to develop into a gateway for Chinese goods bound for Central and Eastern Europe. Representatives from the Chinese port have visited the Polish facility. In 2008 the two ports signed a partnership agreement, but negotiations stalled owing to the global economic downturn in 2009. The uptick in the global economic environment means that it looks like Ningbo is once again scouting for candidates for its maritime gateway, but Gdansk faces competition from fellow Polish ports of Szczecin and Swinoujscie, which are also reportedly looking for Chinese investors, and Estonia’s port of Tallinn, which Ningbo has also expressed an interest in developing into a gateway.

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Gdansk Increases Its Role In The Global Container Sector – Following on from winning Maersk Line’s patronage in 2008, Gdansk was added to the liner’s AE10 Asia-Europe Service. This not only saw Gdansk graduate from a feeder port to a main port of call, but means that Poland’s shippers no longer have to rely on feeder services or land transhipment to and from German ports in order to trade with Asian markets, saving on transport.

Gdynia Down, But Not Out – Despite losing Maersk Line to Gdansk, BMI warns against discounting the importance of the port of Gdynia to Poland’s shipping sector. While Maersk was keen to move to the port, competitor Hong Kong’s Ocean Overseas Container Line (OOCL) has travelled in the other direction, transferring its operations from Gdansk to Gdynia, moving over its Scan Baltic Express (SBX) service to Gdynia’s Baltic Container Terminal (BCT).

Poland Develops LNG Terminal To Decrease Reliance On Russian Gas Imports – A consortium led by Royal Boskalis Westminster (Boskalis) has won the US$211mn tender to build an LNG terminal at the port of Swinoujscie. The terminal and its pipeline infrastructure are part of Poland’s gas import diversification strategy, which is planned to lessen the country’s reliance on Russia for its gas. In February 2010 Polskie Górnictwo Naftowe i Gazownictwo (PGNiG) signed a long-term LNG supply deal with Qatargas. Under the agreement, Qatargas will supply 1mn tonnes per annum (tpa) of LNG for 20 years starting in 2014. This will provide around 1.4bn cubic metres (bcm) of gas per annum, equivalent to 6% of Poland’s forecast gas demand in 2014.

Risks To Outlook
Potential upside risk to BMI’s throughput forecasts exists, as Poland’s economy is one of BMI’s country risk team’s favourites in Europe, with our emerging Europe desk holding the view that Poland will prove a growth performer over the short and long term. BMI asserts the country’s domestic demand base, buoyed by private consumption, will shield the country from the worst of the global headwinds: 3.4% real growth is forecast for 2010 and 3.9% real growth is forecast for 2011.

Further upside risks comes in the form of China’s interest in Poland’s main port. If Gdansk wins the investment package and patronage of Ningbo, throughput volumes will increase as the port caters for greater Chinese cargo to Poland and Central Europe.

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