Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 07/06/2013 -- BMI forecasts that the Venezuelan consumer electronics market will grow by around 4% in 2012, but the February 2013 devaluation of the bolivar will constrain consumer purchasing power and BMI projects a lower rate of growth over our five-year forecast period 2013-2017. The country's consumer credit binge of the past five years has now ended and political uncertainty, following Nicolas Maduro's narrow victory in the April 14 Venezuelan presidential election, clouds the market outlook. The Canaima Educativo notebooks for schools programme, and February 2013 launch of digital broadcasting services in 13 states, will however, provide a boost to consumer electronics spending over the next few years. The outlook for private consumption remains weak, with government spending ineffective at stimulating private consumption. , Restrictions on foreign currency also constrain demand for foreign imports of consumer electronics products. Despite this challenging trading environment, BMI expects an expanding population, rising disposable income and easier access to consumer credit to have positive effects on Venezuela's consumer electronics sales over the long term.

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Computer hardware sales: US$1.28bn in 2012 to US$1.29bn in 2013, +1% in US dollar terms. Forecast in US dollar terms unchanged. Given the devaluation of the bolivar, there is likely to be more demand for locally produced PCs, as a result of cheap computer programmes.

AV sales: US$1.1bn in 2012 to US$1.2bn in 2013, +6% in US dollar terms. Forecast in US dollar terms unchanged, but Venezuela's digital migration should drive demand for flat-screen TV sets.

Risk/Reward Rating: Venezuela's score was 36.9 out of 100.0. Low Country Risk and Market Risk scores exacerbated the effect of relatively low Potential Returns. Venezuela took last place in our latest Americas Consumer Electronics RRR table. If changes are made in the country's policy mix following after the 2012 elections - not our core scenario - the country's ranking may have the potential to increase over time.

Key Trends & Developments

- Venezuelan computer shipments should record positive growth over our five-year forecast period, due largely the government's affordable computer programmes, computers for education and more local production of inexpensive computers. Around 500,000 notebooks were expected to be procured for schools in 2012, as the government's digital classrooms programme is expanded to secondary schools. In 2013, Venezuela's government launched free digital TV broadcasting services in 13 states, covering around 50% of the population. The government earmarked around US$30mn for the country's digital migration. Sales of flat-screen sets will be an area of opportunity as consumers upgrade their old models to digital. The government also plans to purchase around 300,000 digital TV converters, which will be provided free to households.

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