Angola attracted international attention this quarter, as it hosted the 2010 games as well as the latest OPEC meeting, and both exemplified contradictions in a country that has become one of Africa’s leading oil exporters. The games helped boost construction and tourism in Angola, while the fatal attack on the Togolese team in Cabinda demonstrated the continuing security risk in the country and marred its business environment.
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Report Description:
The latest quarter saw activity in Angola’s construction sector reach its peak on the back of the Africa Cup of Nations 2010 games. Although, held in January, the games are still providing a momentum for infrastructure projects and will push growth in the sector to 22.71% in 2010.
Angola attracted international attention this quarter, as it hosted the 2010 games as well as the latest OPEC meeting, and both exemplified contradictions in a country that has become one of Africa’s leading oil exporters. The games helped boost construction and tourism in Angola, while the fatal attack on the Togolese team in Cabinda demonstrated the continuing security risk in the country and marred its business environment. Meanwhile, Angola’s first-time hosting of the OPEC meeting illustrated the country’s increasing importance as an oil producer but also highlighted its lack of compliance with calledfor production cuts, partly as a result of its dependence on oil revenue for infrastructure development. In any case, Angola is set to continue as one of Sub-Saharan Africa’s growth areas. Building materials company Pretoria Portland Cement (PPC), the continent’s largest cement producer, saw increased demand from Angola between October and December 2009, compared with the same period in the previous year. While PPC expects regional demand to drop in 2010, with improvement expected in the following year, BMI sees Angola’s construction sector growing to US$4.03bn in 2010.
Much of this growth is a result of preparation for the 2010 games, from which impetus for overall infrastructure development is spilling over into subsequent years. Outside the hydrocarbon markets, Angola’s push to modernise its airports continues to drive its construction sector. A series of airports across the country saw progress in development in the latest quarter, while little or no activity was seen in the road, rail and port sub-sectors. As this spill-over subsides beyond 2010, growth in Angola’s construction sector will drop in 2011 and ease y-o-y thereafter. BMI expects growth to decelerate sharply to 13.55% in 2011, from 22.71% in 2010.
The growth of the country’s construction industry and wider infrastructure sector has been partly hinging on negotiations with the IMF, which has allowed consideration of infrastructure spending as it approved a US$1.4bn loan in November 2009. News of the loan came shortly before the government announced its aim to pay debt owed to construction firms beginning in 2010 after at least a year of deferred payments. While oil output is set to rise in the next several years, the country moves sluggishly towards becoming an electricity exporter and, although hydropower provides around 70% of the country’s total electricity supply, this source is still underdeveloped. After expansion in Angola’s construction industry drops sharply in 2011 compared to 2010, BMI expects the rate of growth to hover just above the 11% mark in 2012 and 2013, before easing again to 10.89% in 2014 when the sector will be worth US$9.86bn.
Table of Contents:
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Angola Infrastructure SWOT
Angola Infrastructure Project Finance SWOT
Angola Economic SWOT
Angola Political SWOT
Market Overview
Angola
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Economic And Construction Data
Construction and Infrastructure Forecast Scenario
Transport Infrastructure
Transport Infrastructure Forecast Scenario
Transport Infrastructure Overview
Major Projects - New and Ongoing Projects
Airports
Ports
Roads
Railways
Major Projects Table - Transport
Table: Major Transport Infrastructure Projects
Energy and Utilities Infrastructure
Energy and Utilities Infrastructure Forecast Scenario
Energy and Utilities Infrastructure Overview
Major Projects - New and Ongoing Projects
Power Plants
Pipelines
Water
Major Projects Table - Energy and Utilities
Table: Major Infrastructure Projects
Business Environment
Angola Business Environment
Limits Of Potential Returns
Risk To Realisation Of Potential Returns
Regional Overview
Africa Infrastructure Business Environment Ratings
Table: Regional Infrastructure Business Environment Ratings
Project Finance Ratings
Angola Project Finance Ratings
Design and Construction
Commissioning and Operating
Overall Project Finance Rating
Regional Overview
Project Finance Ratings: Outlook For Africa
Table: Design and Construction Rating
Table: Commissioning and Operating Rating
Table: Overall Project Finance Rating
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Angola - Economic Activity
Political Outlook
Company Monitor
Odebrecht (Angola)
Mota Engil Group
Global Overview
Global Infrastructure Forecasts Revisited
Methodology
Industry Forecasts
Construction Industry
Data Methodology
Construction
Capital Investment
Construction Sector Employment
Infrastructure Business Environment Ratings
Ratings Overview
Table: Infrastructure Business Environment Indicators
Project Finance Ratings
Table: Design And Construction Phase
Table: Commissioning And Operating Phase - Commercial Construction
Table: Commissioning And Operating Phase - Energy And Utilities
Table: Commissioning And Operating Phase - Transport
Sources
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