The Czech auto industry continues to be one of the most important in Europe, despite the global economic crisis which has hit the Central European industrial centre particularly hard. In 2009 the economy shrank 4.1% as the export-oriented economy suffered under collapsing global demand. The economy has begun to pick up again in 2010, but the situation is far from perfect with relatively stagnant consumer demand in Europe. This is likely to be exacerbated as many countries in Europe pursue a policy of fiscal retrenchment which will dampen any rising consumer demand. Luckily for the Czechs, however, their largest auto export market, Germany, shows little sign of cutting an already small deficit.
Dallas, Taxas -- (SBWIRE) -- 10/07/2010 -- This latest BMI Thailand Oil & Gas Report forecasts that the country will account for 3.55% of Asia Pacific regional oil demand by 2014, while providing 3.40% of supply. Regional oil use of 21.42mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 is set to reach a forecast 27.15mn b/d in 2010, then to rise to around 30.21mn b/d by 2014. Regional oil production was around 8.35mn b/d in 2001 and is forecast to average an estimated 8.82mn b/d in 2010. It is set to increase only slightly to 8.89mn b/d by 2014. Oil imports are growing rapidly, because demand growth is outstripping the pace of supply expansion. In 2001 the region was importing an average of 13.07mn b/d. This total will rise to a projected 18.32mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to reach 21.32mn b/d by 2014. The principal importers will be China, Japan, India and South Korea. By 2014 the only net exporter will be Malaysia.
In terms of natural gas, in 2010 the region will consume an estimated 496bn cubic metres (bcm) and demand of 625bcm is targeted for 2014. Production of a forecast 415bcm in 2010 should reach 522bcm in 2014, which implies net imports rising from around 81bcm to 104bcm. This is thanks to many Asian gas producers being major exporters. Thailand’s estimated share of gas consumption in 2010 is 8.06%, while its share of production is 7.71%. By 2014, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 7.59%, with the country accounting for 6.71% of supply.
We continue to predict a 2010 OPEC basket oil price level of US$83.00/bbl. This equates to Brent at just under US$85.00, WTI at almost US$87.60, Urals averaging US$83.60 and Dubai at US$83.55. The 2011 OPEC assumption is US$85.00/bbl, rising to an average of around US$90.00 in 2012 and beyond. For the whole of 2010, we are currently assuming an average global jet fuel price of US$95.50/bbl, compared with around US$70.66 in 2009. The 2010 average global gasoil price, calculated by BMI, is US$92.67/bbl, against US$68.96 in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is estimated at US$83.09 – compared with US$59.30/bbl in 2009. For global unleaded gasoline, BMI is now forecasting an average of US$95.66/bbl in 2010, up from around US$70.17/bbl in 2009.
BMI assumes that 2010 growth in Thai real GDP will be 3.6% and we forecast an average annual increase of 3.9% in 2010-2014. State-controlled PTTEP and international oil company (IOC) partners are working hard to secure domestic oil and gas volumes, with only limited success in terms of crude oil. We are assuming oil and gas liquids production of no more than 302,000b/d by 2014, although the country is expected to pump 350,000b/d in 2010. We expect consumption to increase by up to 2% per annum in 2010-2014, implying demand of 1.07mn b/d by the end of the forecast period. The import requirement would therefore be about 769,000b/d by 2014. End-period gas consumption of an estimated 47.5bcm outstrips likely supply of 35.0bcm.
We are forecasting a 33.16% reduction in Thai oil production between 2010 and 2019, with crude volumes falling steadily to 234,000b/d in 2019. Oil consumption between 2010 and 2019 is set to increase by 18.92%, with growth slowing to an assumed 2.0% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 1.18mn b/d by 2019. Gas production is expected to rise from an estimated32bcm in 2010 to a peak of 35bcm in 2012-2014, before slipping to 28bcm by 2019. With demand growth of 48.58%, this will require imports to rise to 31bcm by the end of the forecast period. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts, which provide regional and country-specific projections, can be found at the back of this report. Thailand holds 10th place, above Singapore, in BMI’s composite Business Environment (BE) league table. It now holds ninth place, behind the Philippines, in BMI’s updated Upstream Business Environment rating, reflecting a modest resource position, moderate gas growth outlook and an IOCfriendly competitive environment. Thailand ranks seventh in BMI’s Downstream Business Environment rating, reflecting its above-average gas demand and relatively low level of retail site intensity. It is just one point above the Philippines in the league table, and may struggle to retain its position over the longer term.
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