Dallas, TX -- (SBWIRE) -- 10/13/2010 -- BMI calculates Algerian pharmaceutical sales to have been DZD185.12bn (US$2.55bn) in 2009 and expects them to reach DZD208.56bn (US$2.84bn) in 2010. The market is characterised by a relatively low per-capita spend of US$73 (in 2009) and a large generics sector – 22% of total drug expenditure. We forecast pharmaceutical consumption growing to DZD295.54bn (US$4.22bn) by 2014, equivalent to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.55% in local currency. Our long-term 10-year forecast is for the strong growth to continue, with the market reaching DZD407.14bn (US$5.82bn) in 2019.
The incidence of diabetes (especially type II) is on the rise in Algeria as both affluence and urbanisation increase. Official figures estimate that around 8% of Algerians suffer from the condition. Around 30,000 new cases of cancer are registered each year, although the country only has four specialist oncology centres. In January 2010, a conference on environmental health highlighted healthcare problems caused by various pollutants, calling for a national plan to tackle the issue.
The Algerian pharmaceutical industry is in urgent need of investment. Pharmaceuticals currently account for 0.008% of all exports but 4.5% of all imports. Algeria's import substitution legislation means drugs that can be manufactured in the country cannot be imported. Despite this, local firms are unable to meet local demand, leaving the market at risk of shortages, a situation several news reports have stated is becoming increasingly common. Currently, Algeria is not under pressure to diversify its exports due to its total trade surplus as a result of oil exports. However, the local industry's generic focus means it has immense potential to increase these exports.
Algerian drugmakers are set to face increasing competition from firms in neighbouring Tunisia, which are increasing capacity, expanding and exporting to other African markets. This ramping up of exports in Tunisia could not come at a worse time for Algeria, with local manufacturers unable to meet even local demand.
While the local market remains under-fulfilled, opportunities for local manufacturers may arise given the lack of any substantial government policies to promote and invest in the Algerian pharmaceutical sector. Tunisia will be more likely to attract foreign direct investment (FDI).
Algeria’s uncertain political environment, high levels of bureaucracy and corruption and the requirement to enter the country’s market through a joint venture deter significant FDI and will causeAlgeria to suffer in comparison with its North African neighbours. The situation will not be helped by the recent announcement that Algeria suspended meetings with WTO until 2011 after their last negotiation, held between March 29 and April 3 this year, failed to lead to membership.
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