Dallas, TX -- (SBWIRE) -- 10/14/2010 -- While we continue to see Jordan as one of the moderately attractive markets in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region – with the country ranked 12th of the 19 regional markets by BMI’s Business Environment Ratings Table for Q410 – this is largely due to its small population size and modest percapita spend on pharmaceuticals. Still, through to 2014, we forecast a steady 5.37% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in Jordanian pharmaceutical spending, as measured in local currency terms, from the calculated JOD282mn (US$397mn) in 2009.
Nevertheless, specific sectors, including the fast-growing medical tourism, will continue to provide ample opportunities for commercial players. Additionally, in order to cater for the growing number of medical tourists, the Ministry of Health recently announced that it will establish a new medical tourism directorate, with the aim of regulating the sector and tackling complaints made by Arab and foreign patients receiving treatment in the Kingdom, usually over treatment costs. In the meantime, the US AID and the Jordan Economic Development Program (SABEQ) agreed to help Jordan’s Private Hospitals Association (PHA) increase the number of hospitals with Joint Commission International (JCI) accreditation, which will provide a further boost to medical tourism.
Public sector pharmaceutical volumes are also likely to be boosted by the gradual increase in the number of the insured in the country, which currently stand at 87% of the total population. In July 2010, the country’s Social Security Corporation (SSC) continued working to extend the health insurance coverage programme to also include the retired and the uninsured persons. The move would serve to facilitate small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) with insurance for their workers. Similarly, access to medical services will be boosted by the pending formation of a healthcare unit for mental health patients in the Kingdom, recently announced by Bassam Hijjawi, director of the ministry's primary healthcare directorate.
Our forecasts for pharmaceutical market growth are underpinned by the expected 3.2% real GDP growth in 2010, which is based on a recovery in the banking sector and a potential pick-up in industrial production. Although we expect the economy to grow steadily over the next few years, it will still stop very short of reaching the levels of the 2004-2008 period, when the economy saw 8.3% average annual growth. In the meantime, we expect the consumer price index (CPI) growth to average around 3% per annum over the forecast period to 2014, which will also play a part in the development of pharmaceutical market values, especially the over-the-counter (OTC) segment.
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